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Tropical Depression Threatens Eastern Mexico

System could bring much-needed rain into South Texas

(NOAA)

The southwestern Gulf of Mexico has given birth to the next tropical depression in the Atlantic. The system will then spread flooding downpours into eastern Mexico and perhaps needed rain into South Texas.

Because this may be a very slow-moving system, there is the potential for very damaging, and life-threatening flooding in portions of eastern Mexico.

As expected Tropical Depression Ten has formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche.

The system has a chance at becoming the next named tropical storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The next name on the list is Ingrid. If the system becomes a tropical storm by Friday midday, there could be three active, named systems in the Atlantic basin simultaneously, joining Humberto and Gabrielle.

The greatest impacts from this system will likely be heavy rainfall, incidents of flash flooding and mudslides.

A general 3 to 6 inches of rain are likely to fall along the coasts of the Mexico states of Veracruz and southern and central Tamaulipas, with the rainfall frequency increasing into the weekend. However, torrential rain could continue into the middle of next week in some areas. The cities of Veracruz, Poza Rica and Tampico are likely to be affected.



There is the potential for a foot of rain, especially over the Sierra Madre Oriental as the system drifts inland before breaking up.

Depending on the strength of the system, there is also the potential for rough surf and seas over part of the western Gulf, which could potentially disrupt bathers, fishing and petroleum operations in the region for a brief time. Small craft operators should exercise caution over the Bay of Campeche through the weekend as the weather can deteriorate quickly with the development of heavy squalls.

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Part of eastern Mexico has been hit by multiple tropical systems with flooding in recent weeks including Fernand and Tropical Depression Eight.

The system also brings an opportunity for needed rainfall farther north along the Mexico coast and perhaps as far north as South Texas, depending on its track. Any reasonable rainfall will be welcomed by many residential and agricultural interests over the Rio Grande Valley.

More precise details as to the amount of rainfall and magnitude of problems will unfold this weekend as the system develops and establishes a track over the Bay of Campeche.

In the meantime, enough rain capable of causing flash flooding and mud slides will occur over the Mexico states of Yucatan, Quintana Roo, Campeche and Tabasco into Friday with local rainfall amounts of 6 inches.

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