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Arctic Cold May Set Stage for Eastern Snowstorm Next Week

Several storm scenarios are possible, with one bringing heavy snow to the Northeast

Friday, Nov. 8, 2013
Snow shovels and a snow blower tackle the overnight accumulation on New York's Upper West Side,  Thursday, Jan. 27, 2011. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
(AP Photo/Richard Drew)

A cold blast of air, driving into the Eastern states, may set the table for a swath of snow next week from the Ohio Valley to New England.

A few temperature swings are likely through the weekend from the Upper Midwest to the Southeast before a large zone of cold air builds into the area next week.

As the mild air is squeezed south toward the Gulf Coast, a sharp contrast in temperature should be found along the Mason-Dixon Line, westward through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

It is this difference in temperatures that may help a storm form by the middle of the week.

Although the exact track of a potential storm system and impacts will need to be ironed out over the next several days, it is likely that the coldest air of the season will dive into the Midwest Monday, followed by the Ohio Valley and potentially East Coast by midweek.

A few storm scenarios exist. One is that a coastal low develops near the Carolinas and slides up the East Coast, bringing coastal rain, inland snow and gusty winds.

Another possible option is that this low does not make the turn up the coast and slides out to sea instead. This track would favor a rain and snow mix for the central Appalachians with dry, cold conditions in New England.

A third scenario depicts an unusually strong storm that moves up the coast then backs into the Northeast. This type of setup would lead to heavy snow well inland but rain in the big cities of the I-95 corridor.

ABC 7 New York's Chief Meteorologist Lee Goldberg noted, "climatology does not favor major snow in along the I-95 corridor in mid-November. Snow is more likely in the higher ground north and west of the cities."

Goldberg added that this era of improved weather forecasting technology is a double-edged sword. He said the ability to predict a potential snowstorm a week in advance is great but leaves meteorologists with several days where it's hard to pinpoint specifics.

Even if a large snowstorm fails to unfold, residents from Minneapolis to Boston will need to break out the hats and gloves. Daytime highs may struggle to climb out of the 20s Monday and Tuesday in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while 30s and 40s will make it feel more like December in the Northeast.

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As with any big weather event a week away, the ingredients must come together at the right moment for a large snowstorm to occur. AccuWeather.com meteorologist Mark Paquette explained, "while the arrival of cold air is likely, the evolution of a storm and eventual track is still up in the air."

In addition, AccuWeather.com meteorologists look at the weather elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere for clues about what may happen in the Eastern states.

One of these clues is the position of the jet stream, a fast-moving channel of air near the altitude where planes fly. According to AccuWeather.com lead long-range forecast Paul Pastelok, the pattern of the jet stream seems to favor a storm in the east next week.

Interestingly, if measurable snow were to fall in New York City, it would be the third year in a row that the city recorded accumulating snow before Thanksgiving.

"Snowtober" brought almost 3 inches of snow in late October 2011, and nearly 5 inches fell last year a week after Sandy battered the region.


RELATED ON SKYE: 15 Photos of Monster Blizzards

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stevea24us

Southern California here, enjoying the year around beach weather. No snow to worry about here. Surfs up and Sun is shining brightly it is the state that is as good as Hawaii.

November 08 2013 at 11:40 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
kpamesa

To quote chicken little: the sky is falling, the sky is falling! OMG - if snow is such a bad thing for people, why do they live in "new england"? Get real people - a little snow storm isn't gonna kill anyone but the idiots who can't seem to get a grip on reality.

November 08 2013 at 11:27 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
rsbuttery

Where is that global warming? Oh wait, its a hoax! Weather changes every day and does as it will. Michiganders (and many other states) say wait a minute the weather will change.

November 08 2013 at 11:18 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
arjohny

the blathering heads will advise the gullible this is more evidence of global warming and the need for a carbon tax.

November 08 2013 at 11:14 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
justinleetaylor5288

I like how the meteorologists in Connecticut are playing this safe. There not saying to much about this. In fact, the other day several weather pages on Facebook ( Northeast Storm Center, Mid-Atlantic Storm Watch,etc where posting computer models like the Euro on Monday, resulting in some CT residents contacting meteorologists asking about this possible snowstorm. First and foremost the computer models are really not in good agreement especially if your looking at 5-7 days out.. If i was a meteorologist id continue to look at a trend in the models, then start bringing the possibility of a storm hitting. Hyping a forecast of possibilities seven days out. The models aren't in really good agreement still.

November 08 2013 at 10:26 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
DarkStarAz

Interesting to note worldwide temperatures have not only not "hockeysticked" they are right back to where they were sixteen years ago. Arctic ice is up 29% in a single year. Antarctic ice is at record highs. Get a warm coat 'cause things are cooling down!

November 08 2013 at 9:11 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Rooster

When I was a kid, in the mid-1960's, there was always snow before Thanksgiving. So what's the prob, Bob?

November 08 2013 at 9:09 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Rooster's comment
pcfriar66

And where do you live? I grew up in R.I. and snow beore Thaksgiving, although not unheard of, was still rare. Thanksgiving 1971 saw a major snowstorm for inland Southern New England, but just rain where I lived. Northwestern R.I , up around Burrilville got 9 inches, but none near Providence or Naragansett Bay. The next time I saw snow on Thanksgiving wasn't until 1989, living in Shelton Conn.

November 08 2013 at 10:56 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
newbury57

they always wear shorts in snow or or not. They are a very rugged people here.

November 08 2013 at 9:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Robert Brooks

Too damn early for this.

November 08 2013 at 8:30 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
CAMERON

Ok. I will be ready. Going to store sat. So I am ready for bs now ?
As for Thanksgiving. I plan to stay put if we have snow

November 08 2013 at 8:26 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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